Bangladesh is experiencing a seismic shift after 18 years of Awami League rule ended abruptly due to intensive student protests. This upheaval, and the crackdowns that resulted in the deaths of more than 300 protesters, forced Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to flee the country and ushered in an interim government.
But amid this recent political turmoil, the fate of the nearly one million Rohingya refugees residing in the Cox’s Bazar camp in southeastern Bangladesh has grown uncertain.
For years, Bangladesh has grappled with deepening domestic challenges, most notably increasing inequality, nepotism and contested elections. However, the current moment offers tentative hope, as the new government seems committed to providing justice to the protesters, to reducing inequality and to adhering to human rights norms.
The new government faces a steep challenge.
Rohingya refugees continue to languish in a deteriorating security situation. With reports of kidnappings and forced conscription in neighbouring Myanmar, the arrivals of war-wounded refugees from that country have increased.
Following a military coup in 2021, Myanmar has been embroiled in a civil war that has been particularly pronounced in the multi-ethnic Rakhine state, where the Arakan Army has exacerbated violence against Rohingya people while also fighting the Myanmari military.
This has caused more Rohingya people to flee to Bangladesh in the past year, where they have been met with diminished services due to the sharp decline in funding.
The situation demands explicit commitments from the interim government and international partners to support Rohingya women activists, to protect both Rohingya young men at risk of forcible conscription and acutely vulnerable Rohingya members of the Hijra community, and to direct the military to protect Rohingya refugees as they travel to Bangladesh.
At present, the regime change has set off violence in and around the camps. Rather than being autonomous, refugee camps are affected by a complex combination of local and international politics that impacts both their stability and vulnerability.
After completing my doctoral field work in Bangladesh, I have observed these connections first-hand.
Institutions seen as affiliated with Hasina’s former government are being treated with suspicion. International organisations operating in Cox’s Bazar are on edge. Bangladeshi protesters reportedly targeted the Cox’s Bazar International Organisation for Migration office because of its perceived connection with the ousted government.
Regional security is also wavering. The military and insurgent killings in western Myanmar along the border with Bangladesh, and during attempts to cross to safety to Bangladesh, have raised serious concerns.
Pervasive uncertainty is driving this violence.
Bangladeshi bureaucrats, especially those working within the Office of the Refugee Relief and Repatriation Commissioner, are unsure of how to proceed. Many top ministry appointees have either gone into hiding or attempted to flee the country. Security forces in the border region are now focused on domestic events, leaving the Bangladesh-Myanmar border less monitored.
Humanitarian organisations and officials have also been impacted. Despite their independence from national governments, humanitarians rely on national entities for permits, supplies and security co-ordination. The current uncertainty has led some humanitarian workers to consider leaving their posts.
As a staff member of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, known as the UNHCR, recently expressed to me: “I just don’t know how we can deliver on services with these constant interruptions and severe stress.”
Amid the chaos, there is also a feeling of hope. Rohingya activists see potential in this moment of change after years of stagnation.
Amin, a 23-year-old Rohingya activist, told me: “We learned a lot of lessons from the students of Bangladesh. We believe that this new government will do something to help us.”
Rohingya youth have long been denied education and work opportunities. Nonetheless, they’ve been instrumental in creating in-camp educational networks for Rohingya children and documenting evidence about the genocide. Most impressive, they have built a network of committed human rights defenders in the camps.
One such group, the Rohingya Student Network, recently weighed in on the regime change. They published a congratulatory letter to the new government, writing: We express our hope that this inclusive government will not only ensure a free and fair future for Bangladesh but will also prioritise the Rohingya crisis.”
Refugees International fellow and Rohingya activist Lucky Karim also praised new Prime Minister Muhammad Yunus. She urged him to bring “positive changes through his leadership for the refugees being gratefully hosted by his people.”
This optimism is fuelled by the unprecedented inclusion for underrepresented groups in Yunus’s interim government, including for student protest movement leaders and women. It also arises from a deeper belief in Yunus himself. Though not without his own controversy, Yunus has remained a long-standing advocate for the world’s most vulnerable communities. “We will wait to see,” said Amin, “because this government gives me some hope.”
As Rohingya refugees face an uncertain and hostile future, Bangladesh’s rare moment of political change has both exacerbated violence and opened the door to renewed hope for Rohingya refugees.
National governments play a crucial role in securing resources and negotiating political solutions for displaced communities. Bangladesh’s interim government has a complex road ahead that will require balancing the demands for justice from its citizens with the urgent needs of its refugees.
If it can manage to do so, it will truly be an unprecedented moment not only in the history of Bangladesh, but in the global governance of refugees.
Sarah Nandi is PhD Researcher, Political Science, McGill University.
This article was first published on The Conversation.